Trump’s Economic Policies Face Backlash in Midterm Elections Amid Ongoing War with Iran
- Democrats secured major victories in the midterm elections, regaining control of Congress.
- Economic dissatisfaction linked to Trump’s policies and the war with Iran played a significant role in voter sentiment.
- Eighty-nine percent of voters cited the cost of living as a key election factor, with many ranking the economy as poor.
As President Donald Trump campaigned for re-election in 2024, he frequently attributed the nation’s economic challenges to Democrats. His campaign centered on whether voters were better off than they had been four years earlier, a message that resonated in the 2024 election where he won every swing state as well as the nationwide popular vote.
However, the midterm elections held two years later revealed a significant shift. Voters, facing ongoing economic concerns, stripped his party of much of its influence in Washington and various states across the country. Democrats achieved historic gains, flipping numerous battleground congressional seats and long-held Republican governorships, thus regaining control of both the House and Senate.
According to the CNBC Voter Poll, nearly 90% of voters identified the cost of living as a crucial factor in their congressional vote, making it the top issue ahead of democracy and immigration. Three-quarters of respondents rated the economy as “poor” or “not so good,” while less than 2% considered it “excellent.” Fewer than 20% reported an improved financial situation compared to two years ago.
The pessimism surrounding the economy largely centered on Trump, with about two-thirds of voters indicating that his economic policies had worsened conditions. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated, “It was all about the economy. Most Americans are struggling with high inflation and have been for quite some time, and they’re just angry.”
A ‘Breaking Point’
The midterm election backdrop included an ongoing war with Iran, which has heightened inflationary pressures. The CNBC Voter Poll indicated that nearly 75% of respondents viewed the war as a crucial factor in their voting decisions.
Trump suggested that rising gas prices, which many voters found concerning despite general support for military action against Iran, may have influenced their electoral choices. Vice President JD Vance remarked on social media that voters who supported him and Trump in 2024 may have switched to Democrats in the midterms due to the ongoing conflict.
On Election Day, U.S. drivers faced an average gas price of about $4.15 per gallon, the highest reported for a midterm or presidential Election Day since at least 2000, according to AAA. Gas prices have soared approximately 37% over the past year, impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted, “America sent a very clear message…. Prices that on Election Day have never been higher garner a lot of frustration from consumers.” Higher gas and energy prices have cost American households nearly $1,230 since the onset of the Iran war, with additional financial burdens stemming from rising borrowing costs and military expenses.
The consumer price index demonstrated ongoing inflation, exceeding wage growth in recent months and diminishing purchasing power. The latest producer price index report revealed that escalating diesel costs, vital for transportation, have driven up the prices of many goods.
The CNBC Voter Poll found that more than 60% of respondents attributed rising prices to Trump’s policies. Additionally, nearly 90% expressed significant concerns over prices for essential goods like utilities, food, and oil. The poll consisted of around 100,000 interviews conducted through various methods, with a margin of error of 0.6%.
Unpopular Policies
Before the commencement of the conflict in Iran, economists had already raised alarms about the potential impacts of Trump’s policies on the economy. His proposed steep tariffs aimed at revitalizing domestic manufacturing contributed to market instability and recession fears. Researchers from the New York Federal Reserve found that many prices would have been lower without these tariffs, many of which were subsequently struck down by the Supreme Court.
In the CNBC Voter Poll, 64% of respondents believed that Trump’s tariff policies negatively impacted their local economy, while only 14% felt they had a positive effect. Furthermore, Trump’s administration faced backlash for overseeing mass deportations that sparked protests and were implicated in the deaths of two U.S. citizens.
A University of Pennsylvania study indicated that cities experiencing increases in immigration faced declines in foot traffic and billions in lost consumer spending. Approximately 60% of voters disapproved of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement operated, but many still perceived the Republican Party as better equipped to handle immigration issues.
Some policies under Trump’s administration received better reception. For instance, the IRS reported an 11% growth in average tax refunds following the implementation of Trump’s “big beautiful bill.” The introduction of Trump Accounts also allowed parents to access government and donor funds for children’s savings.
Ultimately, the midterm elections underscored ongoing concerns about affordability amid the Iran war and persistent inflation. Compared to the 2024 election, voters seemed to shift their belief on which party could effectively address these economic challenges. In 2024, more voters favored Trump; however, more recent polls show a preference for Democratic solutions over Republican ones. Seven out of ten respondents in the CNBC Voter Poll indicated that they felt the U.S. economic system generally favored the wealthy.
Zandi remarked, “We know pretty clearly what is making Americans upset. There’s another election coming up in two years. Hopefully, policymakers are listening to all this.”
News Courtesy of CNBC
