U.S. Oil Prices Surpass $100, Gas Prices Reach Multi-Month Highs
- U.S. oil prices are above $100 per barrel, driving up gasoline prices.
- Traders on Kalshi predict a 71% chance gas prices will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026.
- Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions are contributing to rising oil costs.
U.S. oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, resulting in gasoline prices reaching multi-month highs. Prediction market traders anticipate that American consumers will spend more at the pump, with historical peaks expected this year.
The national average for gas prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA. Traders on Kalshi currently see a 71% probability that the average will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026. Additionally, there are 57% odds that prices will surpass $4.80 and over a 40% chance they will exceed $5.00 per gallon, the latter of which last occurred in June 2022.
Contracts on Kalshi allow traders to predict whether gas prices will breach certain thresholds, with outcomes determined by AAA’s data.
Heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran have intensified recently, raising concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global oil supply, which is contributing to increased oil prices. As of Monday, Western Texas Intermediate crude futures were noted as increasing by 3.5%, trading at over $103 per barrel.
Furthermore, traders on Kalshi estimate even odds that gas prices will remain above $4.25 per gallon on election day, November 3.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
News Courtesy of CNBC
