2026 IPO Landscape Uncertain as Key Companies Delay Public Offerings
- Major anticipated IPOs including OpenAI have been postponed, shifting investor expectations.
- Anthropic remains the only company with a significant chance of going public in 2026, boasting a 75% probability on Kalshi.
- Overall US IPO activity has declined 33% compared to 2025, despite increased proceeds from certain megacap debuts.
As investors look to 2026, expectations around new initial public offerings (IPOs) have fallen significantly. Initially anticipated debuts from notable technology firms such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have been overshadowed by a lack of forthcoming announcements.
OpenAI has officially ruled out its public market debut for 2026, joining a growing list of companies that have postponed their offerings this year. Current speculation indicates that Anthropic might be the sole large company to potentially announce an IPO, having confidentially filed a prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June. According to the prediction market platform Kalshi, Anthropic has a 75% likelihood of making an official IPO announcement.
The market dynamics have shifted dramatically for other proposed IPOs. In January, Plaid was given a 50% chance of going public this year, but that has since dropped to just 10%. Similarly, Deel‘s odds have plummeted from 50% to 3%, while Databricks now holds only a 1% chance after previously exceeding 50% in January.
OpenAI, deemed Anthropic’s chief rival, is facing similar skepticism with just a 3% chance of going public, following CEO Sam Altman’s assertion that an IPO is not viable due to AI safety concerns. Traders on Kalshi indicate only a 50% chance that OpenAI will make an official IPO announcement by June 2027.
IPO Postponements on the Rise
The trend of IPO postponements has accelerated across sectors. While proceeds from IPOs this year have increased—largely due to notable entries like SpaceX in June—the number of U.S. IPOs priced has actually declined by 33% compared to 2025, according to Renaissance Capital.
Investors are increasingly drawn to AI firms, anticipating their transition from private to public markets in pursuit of larger capital for development. Despite rapid growth, recent reports questioning the sustainability of that growth have surfaced. Notably, Anthropic’s recent revenue report showed third-quarter earnings of $16.8 billion, reflecting slower growth than previous quarters. Analyst Dauvin Peterson of 22V Research pointed out that expectations of a $2 trillion valuation have been revised down to a starting point of $1.5 trillion, raising concerns about Anthropic’s future growth potential amidst pricing pressures in the landscape of large language models.
News Courtesy of CNBC
