Premier League Predictions: Arsenal Favored to Win, Relegation Battles Loom

As the new Premier League season approaches, DraftKings has established Arsenal as the frontrunner to clinch the title with an implied probability of 34.58%. Following Arsenal are Manchester City at 22.75%, Liverpool at 14.41%, and both Manchester United and Chelsea at 9.61% each. Despite Arsenal’s strong position, the likelihood remains that a non-favorite could ultimately take the crown, with the combined odds for all other teams surpassing Arsenal’s.

Although Arsenal boasts a solid track record over the past four seasons with points totaling 84, 89, 74, and 85, the current season poses challenges. Key players like William Saliba, Declan Rice, and Bukayo Saka face injury concerns, which could hinder their performance. Alternatively, Brighton emerges as a team with greater winning potential than public betting lines suggest, attributed to their young talent and the managerial abilities of Fabian Hurzeler, the league’s youngest manager.

Regarding Champions League qualification, Arsenal tops the list with an 86.04% chance, trailed by Manchester City at 74.57% and Liverpool at 69.15%. The Premier League could secure an additional Champions League spot, considering the financial disparities compared to leagues in other nations, compounded by the success of multiple English teams in last season’s tournament.

In the relegation battle, Hull City faces the toughest odds at a striking 71.74%. They are joined by Ipswich Town and Coventry City, each with a 53.60% chance. Notably, Hull is the first team promoted to the Premier League with a negative adjusted goal differential since the inception of the expected goals metric. The unpredictability of soccer could mean surprises in the relegation landscape as well.

The Golden Boot contenders for the highest goal scorer this season include Erling Haaland, who leads with a 43.94% probability of success. Cole Palmer is predicted to outperform expectations due to expected penalty-taking duties at Chelsea.

Lastly, Bruno Fernandes, having set the assist record last season, is expected to continue his form, but Crystal Palace’s Adam Wharton, who significantly trailed only Fernandes and Rayan Cherki in expected assists, is also viewed as a strong contender to exceed conventional wisdom in the assists race.

Special Credits: Image Courtesy of Espn