Gas Prices Predicted to Remain High Ahead of Midterm Elections
- Gas prices are projected to stay above $4 per gallon as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
- Diesel prices recently peaked at $6.53 per gallon before slightly declining.
- Prediction markets give Democrats a 63% chance of gaining control of the Senate amid rising fuel costs.
As the 2026 midterm elections draw near, affordability ranks among voters’ foremost concerns. Gas prices, a significant financial strain for consumers, are anticipated to remain high through Election Day. Currently, the national average for gasoline stands at $4.36 per gallon, with prediction market platform Kalshi indicating an 87% likelihood that this figure will stay above $4 by November 3.
While prices are expected to remain elevated, experts on Kalshi assign a 42% chance that the national average will exceed $4.25 on Election Day. Gas prices previously hit a peak of $4.56 per gallon in late May, largely attributed to rising costs following the onset of the U.S.-Iran war and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an essential route for oil exports. Prices later dipped to a low of $3.79 in early July before increasing again throughout the summer.
Meanwhile, diesel prices soared to nearly $6.53 per gallon on September 22 but have since decreased to $6.28. Traders on Kalshi estimate a 68% chance that diesel prices will remain above $6 per gallon by early November. This increase in diesel costs particularly impacts states with robust agricultural sectors, such as Iowa and Kansas, as well as Alaska, where diesel is vital for electricity supply. All three states are host to competitive U.S. Senate races this November.
The persistence of high gas prices has influenced the political landscape, bolstering Democrats’ prospects for seizing control of the Senate. Recent predictions assign the party a 63% probability of winning enough seats to regain control from Republican leadership.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
News Courtesy of CNBC
