Traders Forecast September Inflation Data as Yearly Peak Approaches
- Traders on Kalshi predict September’s consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 3.6% year over year.
- Speculators give a one-in-three chance inflation will reach new highs in 2026 after peaking at 4.2% in May.
- Core inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.4%, with a 6% chance of dropping below 2.2% this year.
Traders using the prediction market platform Kalshi believe that inflation has likely peaked for the year. However, they do not anticipate a significant decrease in the near future.
According to trader estimates, the consumer price index (CPI) report for September, scheduled for release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to reflect a 3.6% year-over-year increase. This aligns with the consensus estimate from FactSet.
This projected rise marks an increase from the 3.4% advance recorded in August. Moreover, Kalshi speculators indicate a near one-in-three chance that inflation will hit new highs in 2026, following a previous peak of 4.2% in May.
Inflation-related contracts on Kalshi allow traders to speculate on whether CPI will surpass various thresholds for September and throughout 2026. The outcomes of these contracts are determined based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core inflation is projected to remain consistent at 2.4% year over year, which is in line with economists’ predictions, as reported by FactSet. Nonetheless, traders suggest that core inflation—which excludes fluctuations in food and energy prices—will likely stay elevated for the remainder of 2026.
Furthermore, there is only a 6% likelihood that core inflation will fall below 2.2% this year, with annual core inflation having last dipped below that level prior to the inflation surge that began in 2021.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
News Courtesy of CNBC
